The Underdog & The Index

A Statistical Showdown: WNBA Unders vs. The S&P 500

An analytical deep dive into two seemingly unrelated worlds: the surprising consistency of betting the "under" in WNBA games and the volatile performance of the stock market. Is there a hidden correlation, or just a fascinating coincidence?

The Big Picture: By the Numbers

WNBA Point Totals

The "Under" Performance

Historical "Under" Hit Rate

52.8%

(2021-2024 Seasons)

S&P 500 Index

Market Performance

Annualized Return

14.9%

(During WNBA Seasons 2021-2024)

Correlation or Coincidence?

Here we overlay the two datasets. The bars represent the WNBA "under" hit rate for each season, while the line tracks the percentage change of the S&P 500 during that same season. The 2022 season, a peak for WNBA unders, coincided with a significant market downturn.

Strategy vs. Stocks: The Monetary Return

WNBA "Under" Betting Profit

This chart shows the net profit if you bet $100 on the "under" in every single WNBA regular season game, assuming standard -110 odds. The strategy was most profitable during the 2022 season.

S&P 500 Investment Growth

This chart shows the cumulative growth of a single $100 investment made at the start of the 2021 WNBA season. It illustrates the power of long-term market growth despite periods of volatility.

Final Tally: Total Return on Investment

WNBA "Under" Betting ROI

(2021-2024)

5.1%

(Based on $89,300 total wagered)

S&P 500 Investment ROI

(May 2021 - Sep 2024)

26.2%

(Based on a single $100 investment)